A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
